Extreme weather is a looming threat to the U.S.-China competition, and the cost of falling behind on climate adaptation could be significant. As the world's largest emitters of carbon dioxide, both countries face great risks from climate-related extreme weather, which can degrade critical systems, obstruct transportation networks, destroy housing and businesses, and constrict insurance markets. According to the 2026 Climate Risk Index, China and the United States ranked among the top 20 countries that suffered the largest economic and human tolls from extreme weather between 1995 and 2024. These weather events will only intensify as the planet warms, and XDI has projected that by 2050, the world's 100 subnational jurisdictions most exposed to climate disruption will include 29 Chinese provinces and 18 U.S. states.
China has been integrating adaptation into its policy planning for more than a decade, releasing its first National Strategy for Climate Adaptation in 2013. Since then, China has gradually built up programs for climate monitoring and early warning, disaster prevention, natural ecosystem resilience, and climate-proofing infrastructure, agriculture, urban development, and public health systems. These efforts involve regional planning and at least 17 central government departments and agencies, with goals set through 2035. In 2024 alone, the national government issued around 100 policy documents related to climate adaptation.
China is backing up its pledges with significant investment. To reduce flood risk in urban areas, China has carried out 90 "sponge city" pilot projects and demonstrations since 2015, using permeable pavement, wetlands, rain gardens, green roofs, and upgraded drainage systems to more effectively absorb rainfall. Between 2021 and 2025, the initiative received about $8.5 billion in central government funding and mobilized roughly $23 billion in total investment. China has also launched 67 pilot projects that explore additional solutions, including resilient power grids, coastal wetlands, "cool city" design, and farming practices adapted to heat, drought, and shifting rainfall.
The United States, on the other hand, has no consistent national strategy for climate adaptation. The U.S. government has recognized climate risks but has not followed up with sustained policy planning. The Biden administration released a national adaptation framework in 2023 that identified "opportunities for action" but offered few details beyond that. In 2024, the GAO again called on Congress to develop a national climate resilience strategy, improve the collection and distribution of information about climate risk, and invest more in resilience measures.
The economic and technological competition between China and the United States will be shaped by their abilities to adapt to climate change. China is already dominant in clean energy industries, which now account for roughly one-third of its economic growth. The country that can produce adaptation technologies at scale stands to gain not only new manufacturing and job opportunities but also trade advantages as the rest of the world seeks out climate-resilient infrastructure.
In conclusion, the cost of falling behind on climate adaptation could be significant for both countries. China is far ahead of the United States in building the state capacity and crafting the long-term plans necessary to prepare for the extreme weather to come. It's time for Washington to make investing in adaptation a priority. If it fails to act, the U.S. economy will suffer the consequences.
